The Problem
Augur launched in 2018 with $36M raised and the right thesis: prediction markets are more accurate than polls and pundits. It failed because Ethereum gas costs made placing a $5 bet uneconomical, and resolution disputes took weeks.
The Solution
Signal runs on Solana — sub-cent transactions, 400ms finality. An AMM model means no order-book matching friction: stakes go directly into YES/NO escrow pools, and winners withdraw proportional shares when an oracle resolves the event.
``` POST /api/signal/events # Create event (admin) POST /api/signal/positions # Record prediction after on-chain tx GET /api/signal/leaderboard # PnL-ranked top predictors ```
Key Features
- >AMM pools:
- >Oracle resolution:
- >Dodo Payments:
- >Leaderboard:
- >Event categories:
How It Works
- 1.1. Admin creates a prediction market (question + close/resolve dates)Admin creates a prediction market (question + close/resolve dates)
- 2.2. Users stake SOL on YES or NO before the close timeUsers stake SOL on YES or NO before the close time
- 3.3. Oracle resolves with the outcome (0=NO, 1=YES, 2=Draw)Oracle resolves with the outcome (0=NO, 1=YES, 2=Draw)
- 4.4. Winners claim: `(user_stake / winning_pool) × losing_pool × (1 - fee)`Winners claim: `(user_stake / winning_pool) × losing_pool × (1 - fee)`
Tech Stack
- >Solana programs: signal-market (Anchor 0.30) — 7 instructions, PDA escrows; signal-oracle — resolver authority registry
- >Backend: Express + TypeScript, PostgreSQL (4 tables: signal_events, signal_positions, signal_resolutions, signal_dodo_deposits)
- >Frontend: React + Solana wallet adapter, custom hooks, MarketCard + PoolBar + PlacePredictionModal components
- >Payments: Dodo Payments webhook handler for fiat → SOL on-ramp
Revival Story
Augur (2018, $36M raised) — died on gas fees and slow resolution. Cindicator (2017, $15M raised) — died on noisy crowd incentives. Signal fixes both: Solana's $0.001 fees make micro-stakes viable, and oracle resolution is instant (vs Augur's week-long dispute windows). Built on GameGames' proven escrow architecture with 60–70% code reuse.